Image: Dennis Ledenkof
People have long dreamed of self-driving cars and humanoid robots, but the revolution has been slow. Why is that? Founder of robotic therapy equipment start-up RoboSculptor, Dennis Ledenkof talks about factors that hinder the development of robotics.
The robot is a machine that can interact with the changing environment and act according to a certain program. Simply put, it’s a machine that can see, think and do what we want it to do.
This year investment fund Ark Invest calculated that this technology has a potential global revenue opportunity worth $24tn. In 2022, the robotics market was valued at $36.09bn globally. By 2031, it is projected to reach $126.96bn, with an annual growth rate of 15pc.
Despite these optimistic numbers, nowadays securing investments and clients remains a daunting challenge. In fact, the amount of funding has been declining year after year, as highlighted in the State of Robotics 2024 report by the venture capital firm F-Prime.
In 2021, regarded as the peak year for robotics, start-ups raised $28bn in total, with US companies attracting the biggest share ($15.3bn). But in the next two years, this figure dropped to $10.6bn in 2023, with half of it raised by US entities. The Robot Report shows a slightly different picture: according to its data, investments in robotics were approximately $12.9bn last year.
In my opinion, there are 5 major issues hindering investments and therefore development of the industry.
Physical uncertainties
In any field, equipment choice is heavily influenced by context. Just as you wouldn’t select a bicycle for navigating high-traffic roads to reach the supermarket, it would be impractical to drive a car through a town criss-crossed by bike paths and pedestrian areas. This principle extends to robotics. Despite the average cost of an industrial robot decreasing by 50pc over the past three decades, resulting in widespread adoption by industries, many mass consumers still prefer human labour over robotics.
For instance, instead of investing in an automated vacuum cleaner priced at several hundred dollars, they may hire a cleaner, as it is a safer option. After all, current robotic models may not achieve the same results as humans because they lack agility and are not tailored to the diverse architectural layouts of households. Therefore, I believe that significant progress in robotics hinges not only on further cost reduction but also on reshaping landscapes. Our environments should push us a bit to use robotic options.
Mindset
Many people would rely on human help instead of buying clever equipment also because of their mindset. In fact, some may not even consider the option of using robots. Hiring a cleaner is undoubtedly a more familiar and safe choice for them.
Therefore, it’s crucial to shift people’s perceptions of robots. They need to be viewed as everyday necessities, like phones or refrigerators, rather than as exotic gadgets.
This change in perspective is essential to ensure the widespread acceptance and integration of innovative technologies into daily life. And this might be one of the most challenging parts of our work, as many people refuse to change. Moreover, some may hesitate to participate in the revolution, fearing job displacement, privacy invasion and ethical implications.
Working business models
The mindset of entrepreneurs is also crucial in adopting robotics solutions. While many products may appear expensive initially, they often lead to significant cost reductions in the long run and even increase profits. This is because robots can work more efficiently than humans, performing tasks faster and with greater precision.
Economy
Many factors, such as market conditions, that can significantly affect development, are hard to predict. Take, for example, the sudden surge in AI that few foresaw just two years ago.
Economic uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. Fluctuations in market demand, regulatory changes, and unexpected geopolitical events can all throw a wrench in the works.
For starters, they may affect the feasibility and profitability of start-ups in the field and repel potential investors who have the finances to support product development. The downward trend in funding amounts in recent years is a sad illustration of this thesis.
Data
Manufacturing is an excellent example of an industry where the need for robotics is unquestionable. This technology significantly increases efficiency and speeds up the process of producing goods. It minimises mistakes and reduces the reliance on human labour.
However, when it comes to fields like massage, where the idea of robotics can seem absurd to most people, there is another issue: a lack of data. Without that, you can neither train machines nor predict outcomes. The kicker is that collecting this data is incredibly time-consuming. Plus, every new hardware iteration demands even more R&D time. This not only delays the entire production process but also diminishes the product’s appeal to potential investors.
Despite the challenges, I firmly believe that robotics will emerge as the next major innovation. After all, according to Moravec’s paradox – what is easy for robots is hard for humans, and what is easy for humans is hard for robots. Thus, we need each other. We just have to be patient as market adoption usually takes time.
Consider the history of Netflix. In 2000, co-founder Marc Randolph offered what is now one of the leading streaming services to Blockbuster, then one of the biggest video rental store chains in the US. However, John Antioco, Blockbuster’s CEO at the time, declined the deal, viewing the company as a niche business and underestimating the significance of the dot-com era. Now Netflix has a market cap of more than $300bn, and Blockbuster no longer exists. The lesson learned from this story is that visionary solutions eventually find their way, fight all obstacles and reshape the world. Even if we may not see that yet.
Dennis Ledenkof is an entrepreneur and inventor with more than 20 years of experience in the aesthetics industry. He has built a career in wellness manufacturing since 2001. Since March 2021, he has been developing a robotic project for noninvasive full-body mechanotherapy called RoboSculptor.
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