2024 on track to become the warmest year on record

8 Nov 2024

Image: European Union, Copernicus Climate Change Service Data

The global average temperature this past year was 1.62 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average.

Data from the EU’s Copernicus satellite showed that 2024 is on track to becoming the hottest year on record and the first year with a global average annual temperature of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

A part of the EU’s space program, Copernicus is the most advanced observational programme orbiting Earth and gathers comprehensive land, sea and air data to analyse the planet’s environment.

According to the satellite data, 2024 had the second warmest October on record, at1.65 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels – and only following October 2023 that took the title of being the hottest October ever.

In Europe, this was the fifth-warmest October on record. While outside Europe, temperatures for the month were most above average over northern Canada, and well above average over some parts of the US, Tibet, Japan and Australia.

At sea, the average surface temperature this October was 20.68 degrees Celsius, only 0.10 degrees Celsius below last year.

There was also low levels of sea ice at both poles. The Arctic sea ice reached its fourth lowest extent ever for October while the Antarctic sea ice extent was 8pc below average, the second lowest ever for the month.

Europe also experienced above average rainfall, which led to severe flash floods in Valencia, Spain causing the deaths of more than 200 people. While in the US, two hurricanes hit Florida in the space of a few weeks.

The global average temperature this past year was 0.74 degrees Celsius above the 1991 to 2020 average and a staggering 1.62 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average.

“After 10 months of 2024, it is now virtually certain that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first year of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels,” said Samantha Burgess, the deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

“This marks a new milestone in global temperature records and should serve as a catalyst to raise ambition for the upcoming Climate Change Conference, COP29.”

‘Significant’ gaps to achieving Ireland’s climate targets

The Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI), in its National Energy Projections for 2024 released this week, assessed the country’s performance against the national Climate Action Plan and EU targets and found a “severe risk” of delayed achievement of the majority of the plan’s targets including for renewable electricity, biomethane, electric vehicles and building energy efficiency upgrades.

The report noted that even with a massively scaled effort, it might likely be too late for the country to meet its legally binding 2030 obligations at EU and national levels and called for strong policies and measures to develop technologies and limit growth in energy demand.

“While we have made some good progress on energy-related emissions, we are far from being on track for success,” said SEAI CEO William Walsh.

“Even if we achieve the most optimistic scenario detailed in this report, and hit all Climate Action Plan targets, it is likely that gaps to our energy and climate obligations will remain.”

Walsh called for better infrastructure and services to support energy-efficient lifestyles and develop a circular economy. “We must also be prepared to disincentivise wasteful business and consumer behaviours.”

However, in a sliver of hope, a recent Environmental Protection Agency report showed that Ireland’s greenhouse gas emissions were down by 2.2pc in the first quarter of 2024, but warned that transport sector emissions are rebounding to pre-Covid levels.

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Suhasini Srinivasaragavan is a sci-tech reporter for Silicon Republic

editorial@siliconrepublic.com