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While security supply measures will help in the short term, higher capacity is needed to meet Ireland’s growing demands.
EirGrid’s latest assessment of the demand and supply of electricity on the island of Ireland signals a “potentially challenging outlook” over the next decade.
The State-owned grid operator’s All-Island Resource Adequacy Assessment looks at the balance between the island’s energy demand, supply and the gaps in between. In its latest report, it found that the demand for electricity is forecast to grow by 45pc in the median scenario between 2023 and 2034.
The island passed the 5,000 MW demand for electricity during a cold snap in 2010 and continued to remain in the 5,000-range for the next nearly 15 years.
This past January however, it reached a new peak at 6,024 M. EirGrid expects the demand to rise above the 7,000 MW mark by 2034.
Further analysing the demand profile, the report expects that electrification of heat and transport will become “significant factors” of demand by the end of the decade.
The proportion of overall electricity demand from heat pumps is estimated to increase from 3pc in 2025 to 10pc by 2034, the report finds, while the proportion of overall demand from electric cars will rise from 1pc to 8pc during this same period.
To meet this increasing demand between now and 2027, Ireland would require additional capacity, which will be provided through the Commission for Regulation of Utilities’ (CRU) Security of Supply programme measures.
The arrival of the long-planned Celtic Interconnector will close the island’s capacity gap for 2027 and 2028, the reports says, reducing Ireland’s reliance on emergency supply measures.
Although, beyond 2028, EirGrid forecasts capacity gaps even with the €1bn interconnector. Until 2032, the grid operator expects that peak demand conditions will require an additional 600 to 800 MW of electricity.
While from 2033 to 2034, both normal and peak conditions would require additional capacity of between 100 to 1000 MW.
In addition, the island needs a balanced portfolio consisting of different electricity generation sources in order to maintain its transition towards higher levels of renewables, the report states.
To achieve that, EirGrid recommends new, cleaner renewable-ready gas-fired generation which can supply electricity at times when wind and solar generation is low.
However, wind energy seems to be doing well. Earlier this year, a Wind Energy Ireland report said that in 2024, Irish wind farms provided nearly one-third of the island’s electricity.
“As we transition to a renewable-led transmission system, which will benefit the economy and wider society, the electricity industry will have to find new ways to meet the increasing need for energy without relying mainly on burning fossil fuels,” said Eoin Kennedy, the director of innovation and planning at EirGrid. “New government policies will help to guide this transition, as electricity demand increases out to 2030.
“In the short term, the CRU’s security of supply measures will help to address the adequacy challenges. Beyond this, it’s important that the capacity market delivers new capacity in a timely fashion, and the type and volume of capacity needed to underpin the energy transition.”
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